week of October 31 – November 6, 2026

1. Supply and price drivers (NL/BE, USA, Canada)

Avocados — the week’s biggest supply story. The 10-day Michoacán strike (Oct 23 – Nov 3) ended with a price deal; exports resumed Nov 5 with phytosanitary inspections continuing, and US supply is recovering (Fresh Fruit Portal, Rio Times, FreshPlaza). Per your curated note:freshfruitportal

Colombia expects its first-ever drop in avocado exports: ~140,000 t vs 202,000 t last year, in a year of tight margins. (FreshPlaza).
Colombian currency squeeze: four fruit companies closed as the dollar weakens against Colombian peso — a direct hit to exporter economics. (FreshPlaza).
Meanwhile Peru’s avocado campaign is wrapping up with better prices, and the European market is a buyer’s market for now — Peruvian oversupply and quality concerns are weighing on EU prices before the Mexico/Chile/Spain transition ( FreshPlaza). Western Australia’s crop is down 40-50%, supporting global prices (FreshPlaza).

Berries. Peru’s blueberry season started early with the export forecast cut to 344,000 t and part of the crop shifted from sea to air freight mid-season (FreshPlaza, FreshPlaza). US prices eased late this week as seasonal supplies increased. Freshplaza

Mangoes. Possible bad outlook for Peruvian mango in the final phase of the season — confirming the light 2026 El Niño-affected crop. Spain’s own mango crop is 20-25% smaller (FreshPlaza).

Citrus. Russia’s lemon imports from Morocco up 500%. Moroccan lemons diverted to Russia reduce availability for the EU premium lemon trade (FreshPlaza). Turkish lemon volumes are pressuring the Spanish season in Europe (FreshPlaza), while Spanish grapefruit heads for a record 114,000 t, +8% (Fruitnet).

Cherries, grapes, top fruit. A bumper Chilean cherry crop is arriving in China with doubled direct “Cherry Express” sailings, but the start is cautious amid massive early shipments (FreshPlaza). Turkey’s apple, pear and table grape harvests are forecast to recover in 2026/27, adding pressure to EU top fruit (FreshPlaza).

Structural: South Africa’s removal from AGOA from Jan 1, 2027 ends duty-free access to the US — SA citrus, grapes and stonefruit will face tariffs, and some volume may redirect to the EU (Engineering News, Sowetan).

FRUIT LOGISTICA’s Trend Report finds global fresh produce trade growth has “virtually ground to a halt” (Fresh Fruit Portal).

2. Retail and distribution

Cyberattacks on the cold chain — the week’s defining retail story. A wave of attacks on supermarket refrigeration systems hit at least eight European countries (Belgium, Italy, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Ireland, Luxembourg and others) on the night of Nov 1-2; attackers forced freezers into defrost mode with temperatures rising as high as +20-50°C, causing mass food spoilage, with dozens of stores of one chain and 15 Carrefour stores affected; no group claimed responsibility and experts suspect state sponsorship. Ahold Delhaize’s Delhaize stores in Belgium and Luxembourg were among those hit (LuxTimes); The Packer analyzed what retail cold-chain cyberattacks mean for produce security (The Packer). Outlook: expect hardened security requirements for connected cold-chain equipment and possible supplier-side audit costs in EU retail contracts.cnbc+3

US consolidation. Costco overtakes Kroger as the No. 2 US grocer — a market-share milestone, while the Kroger-Albertsons merger trial wrapped with the judge reportedly calling it “doomed from the beginning”. Why it matters: US produce procurement power keeps shifting to Costco and Walmart (Supermarket News, Perishable News). Costco deploys an AI pricing change members did not expect — AI-driven dynamic pricing at the largest produce retailers will change how fruit promotions and margins work (FreshPlaza).

Costco is also a new Canadians’ top grocery store — Canada’s shopper base is consolidating around discount/club formats (Insauga).

DoorDash agreed to acquire Instacart for $17B (Supermarket News); Kroger’s Giant Eagle acquisition continues (Grocery Dive).

Canada. Loblaw’s Galen Weston flagged energy-shock risk to food prices, the chain opened 4 discount stores across 3 provinces, and its October Food Inflation Report was published (Briefs, FreshPlaza, GlobeNewswire).

3. Consumer and cultural trends

Evidence-backed. FMI’s Power of Produce 2026: only 31% of shoppers eat fresh produce daily — a frequency problem; younger generations are reshaping fresh produce spending (FMI). The Southeast Produce Council’s “What’s New? 2026” research finds financial pressure is the main force reshaping produce shopping (Hortidaily). UNFI sees novelty items (red kiwis, broccolini) attracting younger consumers (FreshPlaza). NIQ: Gen Z favors exotic, bold-flavor fruit (NielsenIQ). Mintel: younger consumers treat fruit as a modular multi-format category (Mintel).

CHINA: import volume grows, but prices decline. The bigger trend is that Exporters are still overproducing and sending a lot of fruit to China hoping it will sell. China’s fruit imports rose 17.5% in 2025 as cold-chain infrastructure expands, but Chinese fruit markets face oversupply and price declines in 2026 — the market is no longer “buying everything,” success depends on supplying the right fruit. Why it matters: China demand remains large but selective and price-competitive — quality-graded programs win (FreshPlaza, FreshPlaza). Related: Chinese quality expectations rose sharply after the 2025/26 citrus season (Redagrícola), and China cut tariffs on US cherry, grape and pistachio imports (FreshPlaza).

4. Air logistics risks

Global air freight rates eased 1.1% this week but remain 22.8% higher year-on-year, with peak-season demand still strong; gains from India, Hong Kong and Shanghai offset declines elsewhere. Why it matters: air-freighted fruit (Peruvian berries, mangoes, limes) still costs ~20%+ more than last year (STAT Times/WorldACD). Gulf hub capacity remains ~20% below February levels (Gulf Industry); Turkish Airlines suspended Riyadh and Dammam flights after regional attacks and plans to resume mid-November (Aviation Week). Moscow’s four airports again faced overnight restrictions with 400+ flight delays after a drone attack (Airways Magazine); Russia logged 3,596 flight restrictions in 2026, peaking in October (Anadolu Agency). Chile’s cherry air-freight phase is ending as sea shipments take over, freeing some capacity (FreshPlaza).

Week-ahead outlook

Watch: whether the Michoacán deal holds (US avocado recovery), Peru blueberry volumes vs the cut forecast, Chilean cherry pricing in China as volumes build, the EU cold-chain cyberattack aftermath (retail security requirements), any repeat of the dockworker actions that hit 113 ports Oct 30, and Gulf/Turkey air capacity into mid-November.